"There are four war scenarios, and Russia is not winning in any of them," says Chinese analyst

This is according to Chu Wei, director of the Shanghai Political Science Centre, who has analysed possible scenarios for the end of the war and the resulting new alignment of forces in Europe.

In neither case does Russia come out of it well...

Predicting the future course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Scenario one

Putin may not achieve his stated goals, which poses a complication for Russia. The goal of Putin's attack was to seize Ukraine very quickly and thereby distract attention from Russia's domestic crisis, ideally by conquering Ukraine in a quick military operation (blitzkrieg), replacing the government with pro-Russian politicians, and entrenching a pro-Russian administration. However, the blitzkrieg is not taking place and Russia remains unable to finance the protracted war. Starting a nuclear war would put Russia in an adversarial position vis-à-vis the rest of the world and would certainly not win the conflict. The situation is unfavourable for Russia both at home and abroad, and even if the Russians were able to capture Kiev and install a puppet government there, which would mean heavy losses on both sides, it would certainly not bring about the final victory of the war. At the moment, Putin's best option is to end the conflict through peace talks, which would mean that Ukraine would have to make significant concessions. However, what could not be achieved on the battlefield is difficult to negotiate through table talk...

Scenario two

The conflict may continue to escalate and the involvement of Western powers cannot be ruled out. Although further escalation of the war may be very costly, there is a very high probability that Putin will not just give up, given the nature of his personality and the power he holds. A Russian invasion of Ukraine could very quickly spread beyond its borders, raising the possibility of nuclear war. If it actually happens, neither America nor Europe will remain idle, which would clearly lead to another world war, quite possibly a nuclear one. The result would be a humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented proportions, as well as a final showdown between Russia and America. Which, in view of NATO's defence capabilities, would certainly not end well for Russia.

Scenario three

Even if Russia succeeded in completely occupying Ukraine, this would be a very controversial event politically. With or without Zelensky, there would very likely be the establishment of a government-in-exile on the Ukrainian side, the aim of which would be to counter Russian pressure in the longer term. Russia will continue to face Western sanctions and growing resistance on Ukrainian territory. The Russian domestic economy will continue to weaken significantly and will eventually become unsustainable. This period will not last more than a few years.

Scenario four

The situation on the Russian political scene will change or may be eroded by Western influences. After Putin's blitzkrieg failed, the chances of a Russian victory are slim. Western sanctions are reaching unprecedented proportions. The lives of ordinary Russians are also significantly affected, increasing anti-war and anti-Putin sentiment in society and increasing the chances of a coup. The Russian economy is on the verge of collapse. If Putin is removed from power due to growing civil unrest, assassination or a non-violent coup, the likelihood of Russia standing up to the West is slim. Under this condition, Russia is almost 100% certain to submit to the West, and the idea of the Russian Federation as a world power is crumbling.

Analysis of the international impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Scenario one

America regains its leadership position in the Western world and the West becomes more united than ever. Although the public perception is that the war in Ukraine has caused the collapse of American hegemony, it has in fact caused greater unity among the states of the North Atlantic Alliance. Germany is significantly increasing its defence budget, Switzerland and Sweden are giving up their neutrality. European independence from Russian gas is being dramatically reduced by the completion of the Nord Stream II pipeline, with gas in Europe being replaced by supplies from America. Europe and America are finding common ground on the future of the Western world.

Scenario two

The world is again divided by the Iron Curtain, which now separates the West and its democracy from dictatorial regimes. The new Iron Curtain does not represent the dividing line between socialism and capitalism, it is more accurately defined by the boundary between life and death. Between supporters and opponents of Western democracy. The unity of the Western world will also inspire other countries to act, leading to a consensus over strategic plans between America and the Indo-Pacific region. Japan will cling even closer to America, creating an unprecedentedly large and united democratic front.

Scenario Three

The power of the West will increase significantly and NATO will continue to expand. American influence in the non-Western world will grow. Whatever the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia and other non-Western countries will certainly emerge significantly weakened. The events that shook the Soviet Union and the entire East in 1991 may be repeated: theories about the end of one ideology may emerge and more Third World countries may begin to lean towards the West. The West is stronger than ever because of its military capabilities, values and institutions, and also because of its soft and hard power.

Scenario four

China becomes more isolated in the new world order. If China does not adapt to the new balance of power, it will face continued separation from America and the entire West. Once Putin falls, America will push for a stronger isolation of China. Europe will become economically independent of China, Japan will become an anti-Chinese vanguard and North Korea will fall under American influence. China will find itself surrounded by American and NATO forces and will continue to be confronted by Western values and systems.